Questions for Wired article by Bill Joy

Main arguments:

·        Genetics, nanotechnology, and robotics (GNR) are growing out of control. 
Moore's Law:
Each new chip contained roughly twice as much capacity as its predecessor, and each chip was released within 1.5 – 2 years of the previous chip.

 

·        GNR growth is of concern because:

o       They are self-replicating technologies

o       Their growth is not under government control like 20^th century nuclear, biological, and chemical (NBC) technologies, but rather their growth is driven by the free market

• Relinquishment was proposed for atomic weapons, but was deemed untenable. Joy proposes relinquishment once again for GNR.

Expanding on the above:

Unabomber Manifesto:

Machines become more intelligent
Humans become increasingly dependent & disabling machines is suicide, -or-
An Elite controls the machines and uses them to subjugate the masses.

Joy’s statement:

 “the most compelling 21st-century technologies - robotics, genetic engineering, and nanotechnology - pose a different threat than the technologies that have come before. Specifically, robots, engineered organisms, and nanobots share a dangerous amplifying factor: They can self-replicate. A bomb is blown up only once - but one bot can become many, and quickly get out of control.”  This can cause substantial damage in the physical world, as opposed to out of control software in computer networks.

A Luddite is:
- Any of a group of British workers who between 1811 and 1816 rioted and destroyed laborsaving textile machinery in the belief that such machinery would diminish employment.
- One who opposes technical or technological change.

           

Questions:

1. Is Joy qualified to speak to this issue?
   
   
2. Do you agree with machines taking over as expressed with the Unabomber manifesto?  Why or why not?  Consider also Danny Hillis’ statement that “the changes will come gradually and that we will grow used to them.”  Consider also the forecasts (30% by philosopher John Leslie and 50% by Kurzweil) that the human race will become extinct.
   
   
3. In light of technology and the ability of humankind to affect each other and the world around us, is there “anything new under the sun?”  Are these issues new, or are they simply restatements of old issues?  What role does computer technology play in this?
   (DDT resistant mosquitoes, destructive ability, communication ability, increasing complexity with increased dependence on machines)
   
   
4. Think of genetic engineering of crops – genetically engineered corn is prohibited in human food.  Why is this? 
   (White Plague, Gray Goo) What do you think about the idea that genetic engineering will make us unequal, and therefore do away with democracy?
   
   
5. Our desire for scientific advancement has at its source, among other things a notion that it will ultimately make us happier. Seemingly it is hard (impossible?) to implement relinquishment of technology.
   Thoreau said, "We do not ride on the railroad; it rides upon us"; What does this mean?
   Thoreau also said that we will be "rich in proportion to the number of things which we can afford to let alone."
   Our Western notion of happiness seems to come from the Greeks, who defined it as "the exercise of vital powers along lines of excellence in a life affording them scope."  Given the warnings in the article, does this definition still stand?  What about our relationships to others?
   
   
6. Joy himself suggests a big reason why the forecasted future may not arrive as forecasted.  What is this reason?
   He says “My personal experience suggests we tend to overestimate our design abilities.”  Will Moore’s Law hold, giving rise to human-level intelligence, or will complexity cause a breakdown?

9. Do you think Bill Joy is serious, or is he just “yanking our chain?”  Is it too late to assert control?